Overview
- The final ZDF-Politbarometer, based on interviews from Sept. 14–17, shows the SPD at 37 percent and the AfD at 36 percent, turning a once‑comfortable AfD lead into a razor‑thin contest.
- Incumbent Manuela Schwesig has mounted a late comeback by personalizing her campaign and adopting stricter migration messaging in the TV duel to mobilize voters against the AfD.
- AfD lead candidate Leif‑Erik Holm has campaigned on migration and energy themes, but analysts say the AfD would struggle to form a stable government without partners if it wins below 40 percent.
- The CDU faces a collapse in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern polling near single digits, the party's eight minister‑presidents have publicly backed Chancellor Merz, and poor results here and in Berlin could intensify pressure on his leadership.
- Roughly 20–21 percent of voters remain undecided and small parties hover around the 5 percent threshold, so turnout among the undecided and minor‑party performances will likely decide coalition math and the next government.