Overview
- Polls on the eve of voting on Sunday show a neck-and-neck contest in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern where ZDF places the SPD at 37% and the AfD at 36%, and a tight race in Berlin with Die Linke’s Elif Eralp narrowly ahead.
- Manuela Schwesig has staged a late polling recovery in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern that gives the SPD a shot at holding the state, though her past support for Nord Stream gas links remains a political vulnerability.
- The CDU faces historically weak forecasts — about 6–7% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and much lower standings in Berlin — which increases pressure on party leader Friedrich Merz and has provoked internal dissent.
- Coalition arithmetic is decisive: the Greens hover near the 5% threshold that would bar them from parliaments, the SPD–Linke pairing may lack a majority in the north, and an informal cordon sanitaire means the AfD could top votes without being able to join a government.
- Campaign controversies have sharpened voter choices in Berlin where Eralp’s housing-focused appeal mobilizes young voters but drew criticism after she attended an event featuring a rapper who called for violence, and national attention to these two contests will shape party strategy and leadership debates.