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Two Million to Earn £100,000-Plus in 2026–27 as Threshold Freeze Expands UK ‘Tax Trap’

The threshold freeze to 2031 is forecast to raise billions, exposing more households to steep effective rates plus loss of free childcare.

Overview

  • HMRC estimates obtained by Rathbones indicate more than two million people will earn over £100,000 in 2026–27, roughly 6% of the UK’s 34 million workers and up 5.7% from this year’s 1.95 million.
  • Freedom of Information data show 74,000 more taxpayers entered the £100,000–£125,140 band last year, lifting the cohort to 698,000 and nearly doubling it over five years.
  • The personal allowance of £12,570 tapers away above £100,000, producing effective marginal tax rates that can approach 60% for incomes up to £125,140.
  • Crossing £100,000 of earnings removes a household’s entitlement to free childcare hours regardless of the other partner’s income.
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility projects the freeze will raise about £8bn a year by 2029 as the government targets roughly £11bn by the end of the Parliament, and advisers highlight pension salary sacrifice and gift-aid donations as mitigation options ahead of a £2,000 cap taking effect in April 2029.