Overview
- Planetary disturbances began late November 6 with Kp reaching G2–G3, according to the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy at the Institute of Space Research of the RAS.
- A second, larger and faster M8.65 eruption traveling about 1,000 km/s is chasing the first and could partially merge as both reach Earth.
- Models initially showed G3–G4 on November 7 but are being revised upward toward G4–G5, with the true peak to be confirmed by L1 satellite data roughly 40 minutes before arrival.
- Researchers note earlier runs predicted a glancing blow, yet today’s in-situ effects indicate a more direct hit, highlighting substantial forecast uncertainty.
- Potential impacts include grid fluctuations, shortwave and navigation disruptions, and auroras visible at unusually low latitudes, with some estimates placing arrival near midday Friday in Moscow.