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40m ago

Twin MRPs Put Reform UK in First Place, One Pointing to an Outright Majority

The projections highlight a volatile electorate and intensify pressure on Labour’s leadership heading into its conference.

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BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 06: Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage addresses delegates on day two of the Reform UK party conference at National Exhibition Centre on September 06, 2025 in Birmingham, England. Members of Reform UK gather at the NEC Birmingham for the Party's two-day conference. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • YouGov’s constituency-level MRP projects Reform UK on 311 seats, 15 short of a majority, with Labour on 144, Conservatives on 45 and Liberal Democrats on 78.
  • A separate More in Common MRP of about 19,500 voters points to 373 seats for Reform, giving Nigel Farage a clear majority and dropping Labour to 90 and the Conservatives to 41.
  • YouGov cautions that outcomes are highly uncertain, noting Reform is projected to win 82 constituencies by under five points in a volatile environment.
  • Keir Starmer has branded Reform “an enemy” as Labour gathers in Liverpool, with Andy Burnham saying MPs have asked him to consider a leadership bid.
  • Recent council by-elections show Reform moving into second place in several contests without winning, underscoring uneven local traction despite national polling gains.