Overview
- NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 of 5 convective risk for the Twin Cities metro and parts of western Wisconsin while a broader Level 1 area covers nearby states.
- Forecasters expect storms to develop over southwest Minnesota in the early afternoon and reach the western Twin Cities between about 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. before moving east into Wisconsin by early evening.
- A pocket of strong, veering winds and intense low-level shear could allow supercell formation if humidity and daytime heating are sufficient, raising the conditional risk of EF2-or-stronger tornadoes.
- Outside of the tornado possibility, damaging wind gusts are forecast to be the primary severe hazard and storms may also produce heavy rain and hail during the peak late-afternoon window.
- Local meteorologists have provided hour-by-hour timing to help residents prepare, and forecasters say the severe threat should move east of the Twin Cities after about 6 p.m. with no additional storms expected overnight; Level 2 indicates an elevated potential for organized severe storms on SPC’s 1-to-5 scale.