Overview

• An early macroeconomic assessment by the University of Mannheim with ECB co‑authors estimates €43 billion in EU‑wide losses in 2025 from heat, drought and floods, rising to €126 billion by 2029.
• Spain is the most affected large economy, with projected losses of about €12 billion this year and €34 billion by 2029, equal to roughly 0.8% and 2.4% of its 2024 gross value added.
• A separate Imperial College London and LSHTM study attributes 16,500 summer heat deaths in 850 European cities to human‑caused warming; in Spain it estimates 3,893 heat deaths, of which 2,841 (72%) are attributable.
• Barcelona recorded 786 heat‑related deaths, with 630 linked to climate change, ranking third among European cities; Madrid registered 387 attributable deaths, with other Spanish cities such as Valencia and Zaragoza also high on the list.
• Authors highlight sector‑specific vulnerabilities and regional hotspots—including an estimated €853 million hit in Galicia this summer—and urge urgent emissions cuts and investment in adaptation as EU ministers prepare to discuss 2040 climate targets this week.