Overview

• First projections show incumbent Eugenio Giani leading with roughly 54–57% against Alessandro Tomasi at about 39–41%, with Antonella Bundu near 5%, according to Opinio-Rai, SWG and YouTrend estimates.
• YouTrend’s instant poll for Sky TG24 places party lists at PD 35–39%, AVS 7.5–9.5%, Casa Riformista–Italia Viva 7.5–9.5%, M5S 4.5–6.5%, FdI 18.5–22.5%, FI 6–8%, Lega 4.5–6.5%, Tomasi’s civic list 2–4% and Noi Moderati 0.5–2.5%.
• The Interior Ministry reports final participation at 47.73%, down from 62.2% in 2020 when a concurrent constitutional referendum boosted turnout.
• Late-Sunday provisional figures highlighted uneven engagement: Florence province about 40%, Massa Carrara 28.8%, Pistoia 37.5%; city data showed Pistoia near 42% and Florence about 41.5%.
• Local dynamics cited by reporters include stronger interest in Pistoia, the hometown area of candidate Tomasi, and expected abstention in Prato following recent scandals and investigations.