Overview
- The U.S. commercial turkey flock stands at 194.5 million in 2025, the smallest since 1985 and down 3% from last year.
- USDA data indicate wholesale turkey prices are roughly 40% higher than in 2024, reflecting tighter supply and elevated producer costs.
- Avian flu outbreaks since October have hit nearly 1.3 million birds, with industry officials expecting enough turkeys for Thanksgiving but cautioning that fresh and specialty birds could tighten if cases rise.
- Major grocers are cutting aggressively and reworking bundles, with examples including Walmart’s meal at about $4 per person, Target pricing turkey at 79 cents per pound, and Lidl offering 25‑cent turkeys through its app.
- Despite cost pressures upstream, advertised retail prices for frozen turkeys are running lower than a year ago, while small farms are selling premium heritage birds for as much as $300.