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2h ago

Tulane Study Finds 1990s Sea-Level Forecasts Largely Match 30-Year Record

The analysis highlights accelerating rise with ice-sheet dynamics as the largest uncertainty.

Los pronósticos de hace 30 años dieron en el blanco, y el aumento del nivel de los océanos afecta a cientos de millones de seres humanos
“Nos sorprendió bastante la precisión de esas primeras proyecciones, sobre todo si tenemos en cuenta lo rudimentarios que eran los modelos de entonces, en comparación con los que tenemos disponibles ahora”, expresó Torbjörn Törnqvist, profesor de Geología en el Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y Ambientales. 

Overview

  • A comparison of mid-1990s projections with satellite altimetry since the early 1990s shows a forecast of nearly 8 cm versus an observed rise of about 9 cm.
  • NASA reported in October 2024 that the global rate of sea-level rise has roughly doubled over the three-decade record.
  • The study concludes early assessments undercounted ice-sheet contributions by more than 2 cm, noting faster losses from Greenland and Antarctic marine sectors.
  • Authors Torbjörn Törnqvist and Sönke Dangendorf emphasize the need to translate reliable global signals into location-specific forecasts for coastal planning.
  • Current scenarios explicitly include low-probability but high-impact ice-sheet collapse possibilities that would disproportionately affect low-lying U.S. coasts.