Overview

• Analysts estimate a fiscal shortfall of roughly £20bn–£50bn, and an expected OBR productivity downgrade could deepen the gap ahead of the Budget.
• At IMF meetings, the chancellor cited the OBR’s view that the economy is about 4% smaller than if the UK had remained in the EU.
• New rankings show the UK sliding to 25th for personal tax competitiveness and near the bottom on property, with the Tax Foundation and Adam Smith Institute highlighting distortions.
• Business groups and executives warn further tax rises risk denting investment and lifting costs, with the BCC calling for a pro‑growth approach and Jet2’s chief flagging pressure on prices and sterling.
• Treasury options being floated focus on assets and property, including new council tax bands, capital gains on high‑value main homes, National Insurance on rental income, and pension or ISA tax changes under manifesto constraints.