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TSMC’s Record Quarter and Bigger 2026 Capex Recast AI‑Chip Supply Outlook

Markets are recalibrating expectations as new tariffs and persistent capacity constraints shape near‑term chip flows.

Overview

  • Taiwan Semiconductor posted record Q4 results and lifted 2026 capital spending to $52–$56 billion to expand leading‑edge manufacturing and advanced packaging capacity.
  • Analysts highlight ongoing supply tightness at advanced nodes and packaging, with TSMC forecasting robust AI demand and planning multi‑region expansion to support growth.
  • The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on select advanced chips, including AMD’s MI325X and Nvidia’s H200, with Wolfe Research judging the mechanism as largely formalizing pre‑agreed payments and having limited incremental impact.
  • Nvidia has U.S. approval to ship H200s to China, but Wolfe notes China permissions remain a gating factor, and the firm cites Nvidia’s $500B+ backlog in an RBC Outperform initiation.
  • Broker calls diverged: Wells Fargo reiterated AMD Overweight at $345 while Citi stayed Neutral at $260, and Citi upgraded Intel to Neutral at $50 on a potential window from TSMC’s tight packaging capacity; Micron director Mark Liu bought roughly $7.8 million in shares, signaling confidence in AI memory demand.