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TSMC Touted as Safer AI Bet as Morgan Stanley Projects 2026 Revenue Surge on $49 Billion Spend

Many investors view the dominant foundry as a way to gain AI exposure without sacrificing diversification beyond data centers.

Overview

  • On December 18, Morgan Stanley urged clients to increase positions in TSMC, raised its price target to NT$1,888, and maintained an Overweight rating.
  • The bank expects TSMC to guide to mid‑20% revenue growth for 2026 but to deliver closer to 30%, outpacing a roughly 22% Street consensus.
  • Analysts tied the higher growth outlook to a forecast 2026 capital expenditure of $49 billion and continued expansion of 3‑nanometer capacity.
  • TSMC trades around a 33 P/E in recent coverage, while Morgan Stanley argues the shares look attractive at about 16x and 13x its 2026 and 2027 average EPS estimates.
  • As the world’s largest contract chipmaker with roughly 72% foundry share, TSMC makes advanced AI semiconductors for customers including Nvidia and Microsoft and remains diversified across markets like smartphones and autos.