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TSMC Signals 2026 Capex Pause as AI Boom Lifts Margins and Bullish Calls

The market focus shifts to a brief 2026 capex slowdown within a longer AI expansion.

Overview

  • Management indicated capital spending growth will slow in calendar 2026, framing a transitory pause after recent capacity buildouts.
  • FQ3 2025 delivered strong results with revenue up about 37%, EPS up roughly 51%, gross margin near 59.5%, and operating margin around 50.6%.
  • Analysts keep favorable ratings with rising targets, including a $391 call implying roughly 35% upside, a $390 target from Bank of America, and a median 12‑month target near $355 that suggests gains of about 21%.
  • TSMC’s dominance at leading process nodes and scarce advanced packaging capacity continues to channel surging AI and HPC demand from customers such as Apple and Nvidia.
  • The company’s more than $90 billion cash position and low leverage bolster investment flexibility, though geopolitical tensions and potential AI spending digestion remain risks highlighted by analysts.