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TSMC Set to Post Record Q4 Profit as AI Demand Puts 2026 Guidance in Focus

Investors await clarity on margins, capex, U.S. expansion tied to reported tariff talks.

Overview

  • An LSEG SmartEstimate points to fourth-quarter net profit of T$479.1 billion, a 28% rise to a record, with guidance due on Thursday at 0600 GMT.
  • IDC now projects 2026 revenue growth of 25% to 30% on booming AI server accelerator demand and expected contributions from the 2-nanometre node.
  • Management’s 2026 gross margin outlook has become a key investor focus given the early advanced-node ramp and higher costs from overseas production.
  • TSMC has committed about $165 billion to Arizona fabs as the New York Times reported talks on cutting U.S. tariffs to 15% in exchange for at least five additional facilities, which the company declined to comment on.
  • TrendForce reports tightening 8-inch capacity with broad price increases of roughly 5% to 20% expected in 2026 as utilization climbs, while TSMC shares are up 44.2% over the past year and 10% year to date.