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TSMC Seen Posting Record Q3 Profit on AI Boom Ahead of Earnings

The LSEG SmartEstimate from 20 analysts points to about T$415.4 billion in net income.

Overview

  • TSMC has already signaled roughly 30% third‑quarter revenue growth, and any profit above T$398.3 billion would set a company record and mark a seventh straight quarterly increase.
  • Analysts attribute the strength to heavy AI infrastructure orders from major customers such as Nvidia and Apple, with IDC’s Mario Morales forecasting full‑year revenue growth of 30% to 35%.
  • Shares have climbed about 30% this year on AI optimism, helping drive a 16.9% gain in Taiwan’s benchmark stock index.
  • Policy uncertainty persists as U.S. tariffs on Taiwan’s exports exclude chips and a U.S. proposal to split production 50‑50 between Taiwan and the United States was rejected by Taipei.
  • TSMC is investing roughly $165 billion in Arizona fabs, and it will provide fourth‑quarter guidance on Oct. 16 during an earnings call scheduled for 0600 GMT.