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TSMC Lifts Outlook and Spending as AI Orders Power a 51% Year-to-Date Rally

Investors are reevaluating the foundry’s worth relative to Nvidia as AI orders accelerate.

Overview

  • Taiwan Semiconductor shares are up roughly 51% this year and were modestly higher premarket, with analyst Dan Nystedt arguing the stock looks undervalued versus Nvidia given valuation multiples near 20x versus about 30x.
  • Responding to sustained AI demand, the company raised full‑year guidance and increased capital expenditures to about $40 billion to $42 billion to expand advanced‑node capacity.
  • In the latest quarter, about 60% of revenue came from 3nm and 5nm nodes and roughly 60% from high‑performance computing tied to AI accelerators.
  • Wafer pricing continues to climb, with an average around $8,000 and next‑generation 2nm wafers expected near $30,000, supported by heavy infrastructure spending from major cloud and internet platforms.
  • Policy and financing dynamics are shifting, with Taiwan considering AI infrastructure as a public‑works category and investors exploring creative structures such as GPU‑for‑equity deals while large asset managers buy data centers.