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TSMC Hits Record High as Goldman Lifts Target and U.S. License Eases China Equipment Flows

A U.S. license for its China plant plus a bold Goldman target lift sharpen investor focus on persistent supply constraints.

Overview

  • TSMC shares jumped as much as 6.9% to a record in Taipei, helping propel Taiwan’s Taiex index past 30,000 for the first time.
  • Goldman Sachs raised its Taiwan-listed price target 35% to NT$2,330, calling AI a multi-year growth engine and projecting roughly US$150 billion of capex from 2026 to 2028.
  • The bank expects tight supply at TSMC’s advanced 3nm and 5nm nodes through 2027 and forecasts gross margins holding above 60% despite heavy investment.
  • The U.S. Commerce Department granted a one-year export license for TSMC’s Nanjing fab, allowing U.S.-controlled tools to ship without case-by-case approvals.
  • Analysts highlight continued bottlenecks in advanced packaging such as CoWoS and urge selectivity on valuation risks even as AI-driven demand accelerates.