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Overview
- National polls released this week show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie in both first‑ and second‑round projections with margins inside typical poll error.
- State surveys from Quaest and AtlasIntel put Flávio ahead in key battlegrounds such as São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul while Tarcísio appears consolidated for re‑election in São Paulo.
- TSE Minister Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva suspended a Ceará court order that would have cut 76 minutes from Elmano de Freitas's broadcast time and sent the case to the TSE plenary for a referendum, keeping the ads on the air for now.
- Reporting by O Globo that documents link a January 19, 2025 flight by Flávio and his family to a jet tied to Daniel Vorcaro and Banco Master has drawn public mockery from Flávio and criticism from opponents, turning candidate travel into an ethics issue.
- With fewer than two weeks until voting, small poll movements can change second‑round math, campaigns are emphasizing policy fights such as bets and the 6x1 labor rule to sway voters, and an imminent Datafolha release could reset momentum.