Overview
- President Trump canceled a planned Budapest summit with Vladimir Putin and voiced frustration that his bid to quickly broker a settlement has gone nowhere.
- Following the summit’s collapse, the Kremlin resumed nuclear posturing, including a televised Security Council session discussing readiness at the Novaya Zemlya test site.
- Russia’s offensive has yielded only marginal territory with sharply higher casualties, while Russian claims of large encirclements are disputed and fighting near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad remains intense.
- Ukraine’s defenses have stabilized with expanded drone use and Western arms routed via NATO partners, and new U.S. energy sanctions aim to tighten pressure on Moscow’s war financing.
- Analysts report mounting Russian economic strain—zero growth forecasts, falling rail freight, and lower oil and gas revenues—with a failed Lukoil asset maneuver highlighting elite pressure that could open limited space for ceasefire talks focused on sanctions relief.