Overview

• Recent polls show the PP leading with 34.3% of the vote and projected to gain 9 to 11 seats compared to 2023, while PSOE is steady at 7 million votes with 118-120 seats.
• Vox faces declining support, projected to lose 2 to 3 seats, as its alignment with Trump’s MAGA policies and tariff stance alienates voters.
• The CIS April survey reveals a technical tie between PP and PSOE at around 30% each, with Spain’s electoral law favoring PP in seat allocation.
• A leaked claim by PP about winning half a million 'anti-Trump' voters from Vox was refuted by CIS data, showing no significant voter movement of this kind.
• Spain’s electoral system continues to amplify modest vote shifts into disproportionate seat changes, adding volatility to the pre-election landscape.