Overview

• Treasury data show roughly $28 billion in net tariff receipts for July, with projections of $200–300 billion for all of 2025.
• Headline inflation ticked up only modestly to about 2.7% in June and July, while core inflation reached 3.1% in July.
• Price effects are uneven, with noticeable increases for furniture and textiles but little evidence of a tariff-driven jump in new-car prices.
• Companies accelerated imports before duties took effect and are absorbing part of the costs in margins, muting immediate consumer price increases.
• Tariff revenue remains far short of fiscal needs, with a $290 billion federal deficit in July and a full-year shortfall projected near $1.9 trillion.