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Trump's 'Reciprocal' Tariffs Draw Criticism Over Flawed Formula and Economic Fallout

Newly implemented tariffs, based on a disputed formula tied to trade deficits, have triggered market declines, global trade tensions, and recession concerns.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Annual Conference in Arlington, Virginia, on April 4.
President Donald Trump holds up a copy of a 2025 National Trade Estimate Report as he speaks in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
President Donald Trump talks on the phone as he arrives at the Trump International Golf Club, Friday, April 4, 2025, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
President Donald Trump arrives at Miami International Airport, Thursday, April 3, 2025, in Miami.

Overview

  • President Trump’s tariffs, ranging from 10% to 50%, are calculated using a formula criticized for inflating foreign tariff rates and excluding services from trade deficit calculations.
  • The tariff formula contains an error involving elasticity values, which inflates assumed foreign tariffs fourfold and skews U.S. tariff rates.
  • Global markets have reacted sharply, with the S&P 500 dropping 9% and over $3 trillion wiped from global stock markets since the tariffs took effect on April 2, 2025.
  • Major trading partners, including China and the European Union, have announced retaliatory measures, escalating trade tensions and further straining international relations.
  • Economists warn that the tariffs could increase consumer costs, disrupt supply chains, and heighten the risk of a global recession, prompting calls for policy revisions.