Overview

• Trump posted a handwritten note demanding steep rate cuts from Powell and branding his leadership as costly for the economy.
• Powell and the FOMC have kept the benchmark rate at 4.25–4.50% since December, stressing that decisions will remain data-dependent given unclear effects of tariffs on inflation.
• Surveys by the Atlanta and Richmond Fed and Dun & Bradstreet indicate businesses plan price increases despite weakening demand, signaling mixed inflation pressures.
• U.S. law protects the Fed chair from removal except for cause, but Trump’s vow to install a rate-cutting successor has sparked concerns over the bank’s political insulation and credibility.
• Names under White House consideration for Fed chair include Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, David Malpass and Scott Bessent, each facing scrutiny on their commitment to independence.