Overview

• Trump this month demanded Afghanistan return Bagram Airfield to the United States and warned that “BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN” if it does not.
• The Taliban immediately rejected any U.S. return to the base, citing Afghan sovereignty and the Doha Agreement.
• China said it respects Afghanistan’s sovereignty and cautioned Washington not to stoke tensions, as Beijing deepens ties with Kabul through diplomatic visits and prospective resource deals.
• Defense analysts say seizing and holding Bagram would resemble a partial re‑invasion, likely requiring tens of thousands of troops and provoking opposition from regional powers that recently voiced resistance to any new foreign bases in Afghanistan.
• Commentary notes Trump’s “one hour” nuclear claim is imprecise and reports renewed speculation that access to Afghanistan’s $1–3 trillion in estimated minerals could be a factor, while experts add that satellites and drones already provide much of the China-focused surveillance Bagram is said to offer.