Overview

• The Aug. 10–12 poll of 500 likely GOP voters in Kentucky’s 4th District (±4.4% margin of error) shows Massie’s favorability falling from 54% to 43%, job approval dropping from 52% to 39%, and his re-elect score sliding from 41% to 30%.
• Fifty-seven percent of primary voters said they would be more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Trump, marking a critical shift in sentiment ahead of the 2026 GOP primary.
• Pollsters attribute Massie’s decline to a series of pro-Trump super PAC ads by MAGA Inc. and MAGA Kentucky that have spent between $800,000 and $1.56 million on TV and digital campaigns since late June.
• Trump shared the internal McLaughlin & Associates results on Truth Social and has publicly urged a primary challenger to punish Massie for opposing key Trump-backed measures like the One Big Beautiful Bill.
• No major challenger has yet emerged, but the poll’s findings and continued outside spending underscore Massie’s heightened vulnerability as he prepares for a potential 2026 primary fight.