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International travel to the U.S. is projected to drop 5% this year, with billions in economic losses linked to trade tensions, tariffs, and political rhetoric.

Bryce Canyon National Park in Utah.
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Canadian and American flags fly on the Canadian side of the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ontario, on March 8, 2025. US President Donald Trump imposed vast tariffs this week on key partners Canada and Mexico, roiling cross-border ties before offering temporary relief to manufacturers -- but with more levies kicking in next week, the respite may be fleeting. (Photo by Geoff Robins / AFP) (Photo by GEOFF ROBINS/AFP via Getty Images)

Overview

  • Research firm Tourism Economics revised its forecast, predicting a 5.1% decline in international visits to the U.S. and an 11% drop in foreign tourist spending, amounting to an $18 billion loss in 2025.
  • Canadian travel to the U.S. is expected to fall by 15% this year, influenced by tariffs, a weaker Canadian dollar, and President Trump's controversial remarks about Canada becoming the '51st state.'
  • Travel from key regions such as Western Europe, Asia, and Central America has also declined, with European visitors deterred by tariffs and the U.S. administration's perceived alignment with Russia in the Ukraine conflict.
  • Domestic travel spending is also under pressure as higher prices and economic uncertainty weigh on consumer confidence, compounding the challenges for the U.S. tourism industry.
  • Major upcoming events like the 2026 World Cup and 2028 Olympics in the U.S. may see limited impact, but general holiday travel to the country is expected to remain discretionary and sensitive to political sentiment.