Overview
- New reporting on internal CIA estimates says Iran kept roughly 75% of its mobile launchers and about 70% of its missiles, contradicting Trump’s claim that stockpiles were “mostly decimated.”
- A ceasefire holds as both sides run blockades, and Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed to gain leverage.
- The same intelligence indicates Iran’s economy can ride out the U.S. blockade for months, weakening pressure for quick concessions.
- Pakistan-brokered talks have narrowed to core terms, yet negotiators have not reached a final deal or settled the nuclear question.
- Analysts say Israel wants far tougher outcomes and could play spoiler to a limited deal, which raises the risk that any pause proves short-lived.