Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Trump’s Economy Starts 2026 With Strong Q3 Growth, Cooling Inflation and Legal, Market Crosswinds

The outlook hinges on how tariff disputes interact with tax‑refund liquidity alongside easier policy settings.

Overview

  • Official data show real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate in Q3 2025, led by consumer spending.
  • The Federal Reserve cut rates on Dec. 10 for a third consecutive meeting.
  • Treasury reports roughly $215.2 billion in tariff receipts for FY2025 with additional collections since Oct., as the Supreme Court readies January decisions on the policy’s authority.
  • The One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s 2025 tax changes are expected to deliver unusually large refunds early in 2026, according to Treasury’s Scott Bessent and the Tax Foundation.
  • Markets and sentiment diverged late in 2025 as U.S. stocks posted gains yet trailed global indexes and consumer confidence fell to 89.1 in December.