Overview
- Official data show real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate in Q3 2025, led by consumer spending.
- The Federal Reserve cut rates on Dec. 10 for a third consecutive meeting.
- Treasury reports roughly $215.2 billion in tariff receipts for FY2025 with additional collections since Oct., as the Supreme Court readies January decisions on the policy’s authority.
- The One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s 2025 tax changes are expected to deliver unusually large refunds early in 2026, according to Treasury’s Scott Bessent and the Tax Foundation.
- Markets and sentiment diverged late in 2025 as U.S. stocks posted gains yet trailed global indexes and consumer confidence fell to 89.1 in December.