Overview
- National polling in late September shows President Trump with unusually large net-negative approval and very low marks for his handling of the economy and the war with Iran.
- A string of Republican candidates has publicly distanced themselves from Trump by removing his endorsements and images from campaign sites or criticizing his policies to try to improve their odds.
- A narrow Senate roll-call this month underscored GOP divisions when four Republican senators joined Democrats to support ending the Iran military operation.
- Despite those national signals, the generic congressional ballot shows only about an eight-point Democratic edge and Democratic party favorability remains weak at roughly 30 percent, so district-by-district maps and incumbency still shape actual seat outcomes.
- The key things to watch are whether Trump’s unpopularity depresses Republican turnout or persuades swing voters on economic and fuel-price issues and whether more GOP candidates continue to run from his brand before the November 3 midterms.