Overview

• President Trump publicly urged reclaiming Bagram Airfield and warned Afghanistan to return the base or face consequences.
• The Taliban swiftly rejected any U.S. return, invoking Afghan sovereignty and the Doha Agreement.
• Experts say Beijing’s deepening ties with the Taliban—underscored by an ambassador in 2023 and Wang Yi’s Kabul visit—give China leverage to deter U.S. re-entry through trade, mining, and recognition pressure.
• Foreign ministers from China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran issued a joint statement at the UN gathering that opposed reestablishing foreign military bases in or around Afghanistan.
• Analyses conclude retaking and holding Bagram would resemble a partial re-invasion requiring tens of thousands of troops and heavy defenses, with limited ISR gains given existing satellites and drones.