Overview
- National surveys in mid‑September show sharply lower approval for President Donald Trump with Reuters/Ipsos at 32% and NBC and CNN polling reporting similarly weak scores and high disapproval.
- Polls find voters blaming the president’s policies for higher living costs, with majorities saying tariffs and the Iran war have worsened household finances and raised gasoline prices.
- State-level surveys have flipped competitive Senate contests that Trump carried in 2024, including Suffolk University showing Abdul El‑Sayed leading Mike Rogers in Michigan and Marist showing Josh Turek ahead of Ashley Hinson in Iowa.
- Faced with these numbers and the start of early and absentee voting, a growing number of Republican incumbents and nominees are publicly distancing themselves from Trump’s Iran policy and other unpopular moves to reduce electoral risk.
- If current trends hold, analysts say the national Democratic edge on the generic ballot and tighter GOP maps could translate into midterm seat losses for Republicans, though final outcomes will still depend on turnout, state-by-state dynamics and late campaign spending.