Overview
- U.S. average tariff rates jumped to nearly 17% from under 3% and now raise roughly $30 billion a month for the Treasury, according to Yale Budget Lab data reported by Reuters.
- Washington reached framework arrangements with partners including the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland and Vietnam, yet a comprehensive deal with China remains unresolved after multiple rounds of talks and a Trump–Xi meeting.
- The widely predicted economic slump did not arrive as the U.S. saw a brief first‑quarter contraction followed by above‑trend growth, and the IMF twice lifted its global growth outlook as exemptions and deals eased the initial shock.
- European exporters largely adjusted, with Société Générale estimating a direct GDP impact of about 0.37% for the region, while China diversified export markets, moved up the value chain and recorded a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion.
- Key 2026 swing factors include a pending Supreme Court decision on the administration’s tariff authority, the possibility of shifting to narrower legal tools if it loses, scheduled trade pact reviews with Canada and Mexico, and an Oxford Economics analysis suggesting that reversing the tariffs could add about 0.5 percentage points to global growth and reduce U.S. CPI by 0.4 percentage points annually.