Overview

• August inflation reached 2.9% year over year as core prices rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% from a year earlier, marking a renewed pickup in price pressures.
• Tariff-sensitive goods posted outsized gains since April, with coffee up 9.8%, bananas up 4.9%, toys up 2.5%, televisions up 3.1%, and jewelry and watches jumping 5.5% in August.
• Yale Budget Lab estimates place the average U.S. tariff rate at 17.4%, the highest since 1935, projecting about $2,300 in added 2025 costs per household.
• The same Yale analysis warns the tariff burden could increase the number of Americans in poverty by roughly 650,000 to 875,000.
• Tariff rates vary widely across products and suppliers, including a 50% duty on Brazilian coffee announced Aug. 6 and a 39% levy on Swiss imports, including watches, announced Aug. 7.