Overview
- Tariff collections reached at least $236 billion through November, a record cited by the Associated Press from Treasury data, with CBP separately highlighting $200 billion collected by mid-December.
- The effective U.S. tariff rate was nearly 17% in November after peaking in April, the highest since 1935, according to the Yale Budget Lab.
- Trade flows have realigned: average duties on Chinese goods are about 47.5% and U.S. imports from China fell nearly 25%, while imports from Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan increased.
- Lower courts limited parts of the emergency-powers rationale but allowed collections to continue on appeal, and justices signaled skepticism in Supreme Court arguments; Kevin Hassett said widespread refunds would be unlikely even if the administration loses.
- After volatile on‑off actions, selective rollbacks and short‑term deals—including a one‑year China truce—analysts warn of 2026 risks from a USMCA review and possible shipping bottlenecks as routes and demand shift.