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Trump’s $2,000 Tariff ‘Dividend’ Runs Into Funding Shortfalls and Legal Barriers

Independent estimates show tariff receipts fall short of broad $2,000 payments, raising inflation risks.

Overview

  • Trump proposed at least $2,000 per person for lower- and middle‑income Americans funded by tariff revenue, announced in a Truth Social post.
  • CRFB pegs 2025 tariff receipts near $174 billion through September with year‑end projections around $263 billion, below the cost of wide eligibility.
  • The Tax Foundation and other analyses estimate hundreds of billions would be required, including roughly $300 billion if limited to those under $100,000 in income.
  • Economists including Erica York, Kenneth Rogoff, and Maurice Obstfeld warn such payments could rekindle inflation similar to pandemic‑era stimulus effects.
  • Treasury nominee Scott Bessent signaled benefits may come via tax measures rather than checks as Congress controls spending and the Supreme Court reviews Trump’s tariff authority.