Overview
- President Trump says checks could begin in mid-2026 for middle-income Americans with high earners excluded, but key eligibility details remain unresolved.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has discussed a possible income cutoff near $100,000 and urged recipients to save or use new child “Trump accounts” to limit inflation.
- Independent estimates find projected costs ranging from about $280 billion to more than $600 billion, exceeding expected tariff receipts of roughly $158 billion in 2025 and $208 billion in 2026.
- Supreme Court justices have questioned the administration’s emergency tariff authority, putting a large share of the revenue underpinning the proposal at risk.
- Senate Republican leaders have signaled a preference to use tariff revenue to reduce the national debt, and prediction markets assign low odds to near‑term enactment.