Overview
- President Donald Trump pledged on Truth Social to deliver at least $2,000 per person funded by tariff revenue, excluding high‑income Americans, though no eligibility cutoff was specified.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there has been no decision to send checks and suggested the dividend could take forms such as tax changes, including no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security and deductibility for auto loans.
- Analysts estimate current tariffs raise roughly $200 billion to $300 billion a year, while $2,000 payments could cost about $300 billion if limited to most adults or up to $600 billion under broader designs, according to the Tax Foundation, CRFB and Yale’s Budget Lab.
- The Supreme Court is reviewing the administration’s tariff authority, and an adverse ruling could force refunds of tariff revenue, jeopardizing the funding source for any dividend.
- Any direct payments would require congressional approval, economists warn such payouts could add to inflation, and betting markets place low odds on checks arriving this year.