Overview
- President Trump reiterates a mid-2026 target for $2,000 payments, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says legislation is required and details on eligibility and delivery remain undecided.
- Bessent urged recipients to save any checks and pointed to proposed “Trump accounts” for children, while also floating tax-code alternatives and an income cap near $100,000 for working families.
- Independent analyses estimate the plan would cost roughly $280 billion to more than $600 billion, exceeding projected new tariff revenue of about $158 billion in 2025 and $207 billion in 2026.
- Senate Republicans including John Thune and Shelley Moore Capito favor using tariff receipts to reduce the deficit rather than sending direct payments, signaling steep legislative headwinds.
- A Supreme Court review of the administration’s tariff authority has raised the risk that a large share of the new tariff revenue could be invalidated, and prediction markets assign low odds to near-term payouts.