Overview

• Customs and Border Protection began collecting the semiconductor tariff this week, joining cumulative tariff receipts that have topped $150 billion since January.
• Companies committing to build or expand U.S. chip fabs secured full exemptions, including Apple’s extra $100 billion pledge, TSMC’s $165 billion Arizona expansion, and Samsung and SK hynix investments.
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick projects at least $50 billion a month in semiconductor duties, with total revenues potentially reaching $1 trillion.
• Economists warn that after drawing down pre-tariff inventories most importers will ultimately pass the added costs of the 100% levy to American businesses and consumers.
• Larry Kudlow argues that tariff-driven inflation has not yet emerged as predicted even as consumer price indices and Yale Budget Lab forecasts point to significant household cost increases.