Overview
- President Donald Trump publicly said the United States could hit Pickaxe Mountain very soon, asserting U.S. surveillance can track movements at the underground complex and that Washington will act if it detects nuclear activity.
- U.S. Central Command has recently conducted strikes on facilities linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps after alleged attempts to threaten commercial shipping, a campaign the administration links to broader pressure on Iran.
- Israeli intelligence has reportedly assessed that thousands of centrifuges were moved into Pickaxe last fall, raising U.S. concern that the site could be used to restore enrichment equipment destroyed in prior strikes.
- Analysts and officials warn that Pickaxe’s deep, reinforced tunnels make it highly resistant to conventional air strikes, so any U.S. attack would present significant technical challenges and risk a major escalation.
- The threat builds on last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer, when U.S. bunker-busters and cruise missiles struck Iran’s main nuclear sites, and could prompt increased regional tensions and closer international scrutiny of inspections and IAEA access.