Overview

• Israel and Hamas agreed to an initial pause in fighting with a hostage–prisoner exchange framework brokered with U.S. and regional partners, a deal Trump has highlighted in his case for recognition.
• The Nobel Institute said the committee held its final meeting before the Gaza agreement, indicating the 2025 laureate decision was likely made ahead of the ceasefire news.
• Several high-profile endorsements for Trump, including from Benjamin Netanyahu and Pakistan’s government, were submitted after the January 31 deadline and would not count for this year.
• Experts and longtime Nobel watchers note the committee typically rewards sustained, multilateral achievements, describing Trump’s prospects for the 2025 prize as a long shot.
• Trump publicly downplayed his odds while claiming he has settled seven wars, assertions that include disputed credits such as India’s rejection of U.S. mediation in the India–Pakistan truce.