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Trump Threatens 5% Tariff Unless Mexico Sends 200,000 Acre-Feet of Water by Year-End

A virtual technical meeting today seeks a staged plan under treaty flexibility invoked by Mexico.

Overview

  • President Donald Trump authorized documentation for a 5% tariff if Mexico does not release 200,000 acre-feet (about 246 million m3) before December 31 under the 1944 water treaty.
  • Mexico rejects claims of a treaty breach, citing severe drought, limited pipeline capacity to the Río Bravo, and provisions allowing deficits to be covered in the next five-year cycle.
  • President Claudia Sheinbaum says immediate full payment is not possible without risking domestic supply, while proposing near-term deliveries and further volumes in subsequent years.
  • Conagua is meeting today with the U.S. technical committee through the IBWC/CILA, with participation from Mexico’s Foreign Ministry and Agriculture Ministry to review delivery options.
  • Washington links the shortfall—reported at more than 800,000 acre-feet—to harm in Texas agriculture, as the White House pairs pressure on Mexico with a $12 billion aid package for farmers.