Overview
- Trump demanded Mexico release 200,000 acre‑feet of water by December 31 and said he has authorized paperwork to impose a 5% tariff if that volume is not delivered.
- U.S. statements put Mexico’s five‑year deficit above 800,000 acre‑feet, while CILA data show roughly 1,042.6 million m³ delivered in 2020–2025, about half the expected volume.
- Key border reservoirs Amistad and Falcón remain at low storage levels during prolonged drought, limiting Mexico’s capacity to increase releases quickly.
- The White House paired the pressure with a roughly $12 billion farm aid announcement, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins saying payouts begin February 28, 2026.
- Specialists in Mexico argue the 1944 treaty allows shortfalls to be made up in the next cycle, with some citing October 24, 2030 as the timeframe to replenish deficits, leaving the dispute unresolved as the year‑end deadline nears.