Overview
- President Donald Trump demanded Mexico release 200,000 acre-feet by Dec. 31, saying more than 800,000 acre-feet is owed, and he authorized documentation for a 5% tariff if the water is not released.
- Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico intends to send more water but not immediately, outlining a plan for a transfer this month and additional deliveries in coming years to be discussed in a virtual meeting with U.S. officials.
- The 1944 U.S.–Mexico water treaty requires Mexico to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet to the United States over five-year cycles while the United States sends 1.5 million acre-feet annually from the Colorado River to Mexico.
- Reported shortfalls vary: the International Boundary and Water Commission has estimated a five-year underdelivery of about 73,000 acre-feet, while other U.S. officials and reports cite much larger deficits and note preliminary data and recent discrepancies.
- Trade and legal hurdles remain, as many Mexican imports are exempt under USMCA, analysts say an added 5% could push some effective rates toward roughly 30%, and a pending Supreme Court ruling could affect presidential tariff authority; the White House also announced roughly $11–12 billion in farm aid.