Overview
- Trump authorized a 5% tariff as leverage if Mexico does not deliver 200,000 acre-feet of Rio Grande water by the end of the year, part of what he says is an 800,000-plus acre-foot shortfall.
- International Boundary and Water Commission data show Mexico delivered well under 30% of its required volume in the five-year cycle that ended in October 2025.
- President Claudia Sheinbaum says Mexico has complied to the extent water is available during multi-year drought, submitted short-term proposals, and points to pipeline capacity as a limit on rapid releases.
- Bilateral meetings were set for Dec. 9–10 to negotiate next steps as the Dec. 31 deadline approaches and the tariff threat remains in play.
- Texas leaders and farm groups report major economic harm from the shortfall, while trade analysts note a 5% add-on would stack atop existing tariffs and face questions under USMCA and presidential tariff authority.