Overview

• President Trump's sweeping tariffs, including a 10% baseline duty and 25% levies on key sectors, are directly impacting 16% of UK goods exports and curbing demand.
• The EY Item Club has cut UK GDP growth forecasts to 0.8% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026, down from earlier projections of 1% and 1.6%, respectively.
• Business investment growth for 2025 is now forecast at just 0.3%, while household spending growth has been reduced to 0.9%, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
• Consumer confidence in Britain has plunged to its lowest level on record, with a net economic optimism score of -68, according to Ipsos Mori.
• The Bank of England is expected to gradually lower interest rates to 3.75% by year-end, while fiscal pressures may force the UK government to revisit tax policies.