Overview
- President Trump has been briefed on military and covert options to respond to Iran’s deadly crackdown and said he is looking at “very strong options.”
- He announced a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, signaling new economic pressure alongside potential military steps.
- The Strait of Hormuz moved about 13 million barrels per day in 2025, roughly 31% of seaborne crude, making any disruption a global supply risk.
- Experts say a complete closure could lift oil prices by roughly $10–$20 per barrel, while smaller disruptions would have more limited effects.
- Brent has held in the low $60s as Kpler estimates a near‑term oversupply of 2.5–3+ million barrels per day, and Iran’s exports remain heavily dependent on discounted sales to China.