Overview
- President Donald Trump said he has "sort of" decided on supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, stressing he wants clarity on how they would be used and that he does not seek escalation.
- Kremlin officials labeled any Tomahawk transfer a serious escalation, but ISW notes prior Western weapons deliveries and Ukrainian long-range strikes did not trigger the escalatory responses Russia warned about.
- Russia’s State Duma approved denouncing the U.S.–Russia plutonium disposition agreement, which ISW assesses as part of broader pressure intended to dissuade Washington from providing Tomahawks.
- ISW says Tomahawks could enable deep strikes into Russia, estimating at least 1,655 targets within range of a 1,600 km variant and 1,945 within a 2,500 km variant, significantly expanding Ukraine’s strike options.
- Analysts highlight practical limits including PURL funding, high unit costs cited at about $12.5 million per missile for the Netherlands, constrained launcher availability, and Russian air defenses, suggesting any package would likely be limited and tightly managed.