Overview

• President Donald Trump said he has "kind of decided" on supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine but will first require clarity on how Kyiv intends to use them to avoid escalation.
• Russian officials warned of a serious escalation, with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov saying deliveries would have "serious" consequences for U.S.–Russia relations, while the Kremlin also said it has seen no signs of Ukrainian launch preparations.
• The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Tomahawk variants could put roughly 1,655 to 1,945 Russian military sites within range, including facilities like the Engels-2 air base and the Shahed drone plant near Yelabuga.
• A Russian lawmaker threatened Poland’s Rzeszów logistics hub in response to the prospect of U.S. missiles for Ukraine, reflecting sharper rhetoric from some figures in the Russian parliament.
• NATO capitals are debating tougher border-defense measures after repeated airspace violations, with discussions reported on arming surveillance drones and lowering shoot-down thresholds as analysts warn of elevated confrontation risks in the years ahead.